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Huang Wentao of China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. and others: It is estimated that deficit ratio will rise to over 4% in 2025, and it is expected that the stock and debt will continue. On December 9th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Jiantou, and Liu Tianyu, macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, believe that the policy tone of this Politburo meeting is quite proactive, which shows that the central government has made a full assessment and policy reserve for the pressures and risks that may be encountered in economic development next year, which has strongly echoed the expectations of economic entities. Huang Wentao and Liu Tianyu pointed out that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to reach more than 5.2%, achieving the expected goal of annual economic growth of around 5%. On this basis, the annual growth target of about 5% will also be the basic premise of policy discussion in the next few years. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the fiscal policy has been continuously overweight. This time, the fiscal policy is set to be "more active", which indicates that the fiscal policy will expand again. It is estimated that deficit ratio will increase to over 4% in 2025. Both stocks and debts are expected to continue. Unconventional countercyclical adjustment policies not only provide sufficient impetus for the recovery of economic vitality, but also provide strong support for improving expectations and reviving confidence, and provide sufficient source of living water for the capital market. The stock market is expected to continue to strengthen and the risk-free rate of return is expected to continue to decline.LI: In the 49th week of 2024 (12.2-12.8), the weekly sales volume of LI reached 12,600 vehicles, ranking first in the sales volume of new power brands in China market for 33 consecutive weeks.Morgan Stanley issued a technical opinion report that it is believed that the share price of CITIC Securities will rise in the next 30 days. The bank believes that the above scenario will happen 70% to 80% of the time. The bank pointed out that the upward trend is mainly due to the supportive policy tone before the domestic economic work conference, which may raise market sentiment, which should promote the average daily trading volume to rebound and increase market leverage. The bank believes that CITIC Securities is a high-quality and widely recognized brokerage firm, and will have good conditions to consolidate its market share when capital market activities increase. Morgan Stanley gave CITIC Securities a rating of "keeping pace with the market" and a target price of HK$ 21.2.

With the return of high dividend assets, the market pays attention to the investment value of dividend sector. The Standard & Poor's dividend ETF(562060) rose by 1.07% at midday. By midday on December 10th, the standard & poor's dividend ETF(562060) rose by 1.07%, with a turnover of 20,646,600 yuan. The constituent stocks rose strongly, with Yongxing Materials rising by 3.73%, Aopu Technology rising by 2.12%, Lu 'an Huaneng rising by 2%, Gaoce shares and Jianfa shares rising one after another. In the news, recently, the strong performance of China bond market led to the decline of the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, which fell below the key point of 2.0%, and the dividend assets in the A-share market ushered in an upward trend. Insiders pointed out that the decline in the cost performance of bond allocation is a long-term dimensional reason for supporting the dominance of the dividend sector. With the continuous decline of the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, institutional investors' confirmation of the long-term low interest rate environment will be conducive to the continuous excavation of the value of dividend assets.Sudan and South Sudan extended the opening hours of the humanitarian corridor between the two countries, and the governments of Sudan and South Sudan signed an agreement on December 9 local time to extend the opening hours of the humanitarian corridor between the two countries until February 2 next year. According to the agreement, air routes from South Sudan to Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan State in Sudan, and Garad and Kaunau will continue to be open to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid from South Sudan to Sudan. After the agreement expires on February 2 next year, the two sides will also discuss the extension.The interest rates of 10-year treasury bonds and CDB active bonds all went down by about 5bp, while those of 24 interest-bearing treasury bonds went down by 4.9bp to 1.856%, and those of 24 CDB dropped by 5.25bp to 1.9175%.

World Bank: Kenya's growth forecast for 2024 is lowered to 4.7% due to financial challenges.AUD/USD fell in the short term, and the intraday decline expanded to 0.8%, after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision.Reserve Bank of Australia: It will take some time for inflation to continue to reach its target. The job market is still tight. The economic situation has affected the family's discretionary expenditure. The gap between total demand and supply continues to narrow, and output growth is weak.